At an estimated $36.2 million apiece, Cowboys & Aliens and The Smurfs are headed for a photo finish for the weekend top spot, flouting pre-weekend tracking that indicated Cowboys would easily rope in more dollars. Captain America: The First Avenger retreated to third, the final Harry Potter hit another milestone, and Crazy, Stupid, Love. rounded out the Top Five in its debut.
Smurfs led on Friday with an estimated $13.40 million opening versus Cowboys' $12.99 million, but Cowboys pulled ahead on Saturday, $13.07 million to $12.70 million. Cowboys' distributor Universal Pictures projected $10.14 million on Sunday, while Smurfs' distributor Sony Picture projected $10.10 million, leading to both movies garnering $36.2 million estimates. For what it's worth, Universal reported its Cowboys estimate before Sony issued its Smurfs estimate, and, even if Smurfs ends up in second, it's likely to gross more in the long run, given the historical patterns of the movies' genres. (Poll: Which movie will come out ahead with Monday's actuals? Vote here.)
Cowboys & Aliens lassoed approximately 5,500 screens at 3,750 locations for its run, and claiming a first-place opening would only slightly mitigate an otherwise disappointing gross for a movie that tried desperately to be a blockbuster. The sci-fi Western's launch was on par with Super 8 ($35.5 million) and Battle: Los Angeles ($35.6 million) but behind District 9 ($37.4 million), and none of those movies reached blockbuster territory. Universal's exit polling indicated that 53 percent of Cowboys' audience was male and 63 percent was age 30 years and older.
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